The Antigua and Barbuda Government has revised its economic growth forecast for 2026 downward, citing rising fuel and food prices driven by escalating international tensions. According to Antigua.news, Prime Minister and Finance Minister Gaston Browne announced that the country no longer expects to achieve the six percent GDP growth projected earlier this year, with the revised estimate now standing at approximately four percent.
Browne, speaking with State Media, attributed the revision primarily to geopolitical developments beyond the country's control — in particular, instability in the Middle East that has disrupted global energy markets.
"We were bullish initially. We were anticipating economic growth of about six percent. However, I don't believe that we would achieve that now and we are now down to about four percent," Browne said.
Despite the downward revision, the Prime Minister emphasized that four percent growth remains strong by regional standards and is expected to outperform several other Caribbean economies.
"This will still be considered very strong when compared with other territories in the region where lower rates of growth are expected," he said. "Unfortunately, the geopolitical circumstances are such that factors beyond our control will depress our rate of growth."
A central concern is the ongoing instability surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic shipping route through which a significant portion of the world's oil supply passes. Disruptions to this corridor have pushed fuel prices higher internationally, increasing costs for import-dependent nations like Antigua and Barbuda.
Food prices have also been affected. Much of the world's fertilizer supply moves through the same route, and disruptions have driven up agricultural production costs, contributing to higher food prices globally.
Browne expressed cautious optimism that international conflicts would ease in the coming months, allowing markets to stabilize and economic activity to pick up.
"We are hoping that these issues are resolved so that by the fourth quarter we will see an increase, or an uptick, in economic activities so that when we go into 2027 we would have a strong year," he said.
The Prime Minister noted that while the revised forecast falls short of earlier expectations, the economy is still projected to expand. "That certainly is good growth for the Antigua and Barbuda economy in the context of the growth that is forecast for the other Caribbean states," Browne added.
