Antigua and Barbuda has revised its economic growth forecast for 2026 downward to approximately four percent, from an earlier projection of six percent, as rising global fuel and food costs continue to weigh on the nation's economic outlook.
According to Antigua News Room, Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Gaston Browne attributed the revision to international developments, particularly ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which have forced the government to temper its expectations for the year.
"We were optimistic at the start of the year and projected growth of around six percent. Based on current conditions, however, we now expect growth to be closer to four percent," Browne told state media.
The Prime Minister was quick to note that while the revised figure falls short of the original forecast, it remains a healthy rate of expansion and compares favourably with growth projections for several other Caribbean nations.
Browne pointed specifically to disruptions in the global energy sector — including concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz — as a key driver of rising fuel costs. As a small island state heavily dependent on imported petroleum products, Antigua and Barbuda remains particularly vulnerable to swings in international energy prices.
He also warned that higher transportation and fertilizer costs are pushing food prices upward across the globe, adding further strain on import-dependent economies such as Antigua and Barbuda's.
Despite the downgraded outlook, Browne expressed cautious optimism that an easing of geopolitical tensions could help revive economic momentum before the year's end.
"We are hopeful that these issues will be resolved and that economic activity will strengthen during the final quarter of the year, putting us in a good position heading into 2027," he said.
The Prime Minister added that even at the revised forecast, Antigua and Barbuda is still expected to post one of the stronger growth performances in the Caribbean region.
