The International Monetary Fund has warned that rising global uncertainty and escalating tensions linked to the conflict involving the United States and Iran could negatively impact Antigua and Barbuda's economy, even as the country continues to record growth and easing inflation.
According to Antigua News Room, the warning was issued as part of the IMF's latest Article IV consultation, which found that downside risks remain elevated due to commodity price volatility and the possibility of economic slowdowns among Antigua and Barbuda's major trading partners.
IMF Executive Directors specifically referenced the war in the Middle East as a key concern, noting that heightened geopolitical tensions could place additional strain on small, import-dependent economies like Antigua and Barbuda. Recent clashes and instability around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical global oil shipping route — have fuelled fears of rising fuel and commodity prices internationally.
The IMF noted that Antigua and Barbuda remains particularly vulnerable to external shocks due to its dependence on tourism, imports, and foreign investment flows. A slowdown in major economies or sustained increases in oil and shipping costs could weigh on local growth and push up living costs for residents.
Despite these risks, the picture is not entirely bleak. The IMF reported that Antigua and Barbuda's economy continued to expand in 2025, with real GDP growth estimated at 3 percent, driven largely by construction activity. Inflation also moderated sharply, falling from over 6 percent in 2024 to just 1.4 percent in 2025.
The Fund added that stronger tourism demand, improved connectivity, and productivity-enhancing reforms could still bolster the country's economic outlook, provided global conditions stabilise.
