IMF: Antigua and Barbuda Economy Grows 3% in 2025, But Debt Risks Persist

Antigua and Barbuda's economy continued to expand in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund reporting stronger construction activity, moderating inflation and a reduction in public debt — even as the country faces lingering concerns over arrears and financing pressures. According to Antigua.news, the findings were published this week in the IMF's latest Article IV consultation.

The IMF estimated real GDP growth at 3 percent in 2025, driven largely by a pickup in construction activity despite a slowdown in tourism. The report also noted that employment levels have gradually recovered to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.

Inflation eased sharply, falling from an average of more than 6 percent in 2024 to 1.4 percent in 2025, according to the IMF assessment.

Public debt declined significantly over the same period, dropping from 101 percent of GDP in 2020 to an estimated 68 percent in 2025. The IMF attributed this improvement to a stronger fiscal position and increased revenues, including inflows from the Citizenship by Investment Programme.

However, the Washington-based institution warned that major challenges remain. These include significant arrears owed to Paris Club creditors and domestic suppliers, as well as elevated financing needs that continue to weigh on debt sustainability.

The IMF's Executive Directors urged the government to adopt a credible and comprehensive strategy to address those arrears, strengthen debt and cash management, and create fiscal space for climate resilience and infrastructure investment.

The report praised improvements in tax collection and fiscal discipline, estimating the country's primary balance at nearly 5 percent of GDP in 2025. At the same time, the IMF encouraged authorities to broaden the tax base, reduce exemptions and enhance transparency and oversight of public finances and state enterprises.

The financial system was described as stable and liquid. Directors also encouraged reforms to strengthen tourism competitiveness, trade connectivity and workforce development.

The IMF projected steady economic growth to continue in the years ahead, while cautioning that global uncertainty, commodity price volatility and external shocks remain key risks for Antigua and Barbuda's small, open economy.