Climatologist Dale Destin is warning that early indicators point to an above-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driven largely by warm Atlantic waters but potentially tempered by the development of El Niño. According to Antigua.news, Destin's outlook projects approximately 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes — activity slightly above long-term averages.
Destin, writing through 268Weather, explains that warmer-than-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain the primary driver of storm formation and intensification. Offsetting that fuel, however, is the likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño, which typically increases wind shear and suppresses storm development.
Destin describes the situation as a "tug-of-war" between favorable ocean conditions and unfavorable atmospheric conditions. This dynamic is generating significant uncertainty, particularly during what forecasters call the spring predictability barrier — a period when climate models struggle to accurately project whether El Niño or La Niña conditions will prevail.
Despite that uncertainty, Destin places the probability of an above-normal season at 59%. Most activity is expected during the peak months of August through October, when roughly 90% or more of Atlantic storms typically form.
Destin is careful to stress that an active overall season does not guarantee direct impacts for any particular location. "It only takes one storm to make it a bad season locally," the forecast emphasizes.
He is urging residents across the Caribbean to begin preparations early, remain informed, and focus on potential local impacts rather than raw storm counts.
Updated forecasts are expected monthly. The next revision is due in mid-May, which should offer greater clarity as climate signals become more clearly defined.
