A developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean is expected to significantly limit Atlantic hurricane activity during the 2026 season, according to Antigua News Room, which reported on a new forecast from researchers at Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project, led by Philip J. Klotzbach.

The forecast indicates that weak La Niña conditions currently in place are likely to give way to El Niño in the coming months, with the potential for a moderate to strong event by the peak of the hurricane season — typically between August and October.

The shift is significant because El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic by increasing vertical wind shear, a condition in which winds at different altitudes move at varying speeds or directions. This disrupts the structure of developing storms, making it harder for them to organise and intensify into full hurricanes.

Forecasters say this dynamic is expected to be the dominant factor shaping the 2026 season, contributing to projections of below-average activity. Current estimates call for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.

Recent ocean data shows the Pacific is already warming, driven by a series of atmospheric and oceanic changes — including westerly wind bursts and rising ocean heat content — that are accelerating the transition away from La Niña conditions. NOAA currently places the likelihood of El Niño developing at around 80% during the peak season, further reinforcing expectations of a quieter year.

However, researchers caution that uncertainty remains around the ultimate strength of the El Niño event — a key variable that could influence how much hurricane activity is ultimately suppressed.

Experts stress that even a below-average season carries real risk. Seasonal forecasts offer a broad statistical outlook but cannot predict where individual storms will form or make landfall. Any single system could still pose a serious threat to Caribbean nations, including Antigua and Barbuda.

As the season approaches, officials are urging residents to remain prepared and not to be lulled into complacency by favourable overall projections.