Antigua and Barbuda is forecast to experience below to near-normal rainfall in March, with meteorologists warning of deteriorating drought conditions across the island. According to Antigua News Room, the latest climate outlook issued by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service places a 75 percent probability on rainfall falling below or near normal levels for the month.
Forecasters estimate the most likely rainfall total for March at 40 millimetres. There is a 45 percent chance of below-normal rainfall, against a 25 percent chance of above-normal conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain near average or slightly cooler than usual, with mean daily temperatures projected at approximately 25.5 degrees Celsius. Maximum temperatures are forecast near 28.5 degrees Celsius, while minimum temperatures may remain slightly above normal at around 23 degrees Celsius.
The outlook coincides with ongoing La Niña conditions, though there is a 60 percent chance of a transition to neutral conditions between February and April. Neutral conditions are then expected to persist into mid-2026.
The broader forecast paints a dry picture for the months ahead. For the March to May period, there is an 80 percent likelihood of below to near-normal rainfall, with totals estimated at around 153 millimetres. The June to August period carries a similar projection, with an 80 percent chance of below-normal rainfall continuing the trend.
Drought concerns are escalating. The Meteorological Service projects a drought warning across Antigua by the end of March for moderate or worse short-term drought conditions. By May, both short-term and long-term drought warnings are expected to expand across most of the island.
Recent data already reflect deteriorating conditions. Over the three-month period ending in January, northeastern parts of Antigua experienced severely dry conditions, while the remainder of the island was classified as moderately dry. Island-wide rainfall in January averaged just 50 millimetres for Antigua, while Barbuda recorded a significantly lower total of only 19 millimetres for the month.
Forecasters note that limited data availability for Barbuda makes precise drought assessments challenging, though satellite estimates suggest conditions there are broadly similar to those on Antigua.
The Meteorological Service is urging continued monitoring and preparedness as the country enters one of its typically drier periods of the year.
