Antigua is bracing for a prolonged and intensifying drought crisis, with meteorological forecasters warning that the entire island could be under a drought emergency by the end of October. According to Antigua News Room, the alert stems from the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service's July 2026 Monthly Drought Bulletin, which found that rainfall remained well below average in June and that dry conditions have continued to spread across the island.
The bulletin recorded an island-wide average of 40.4 millimetres (1.59 inches) of rainfall in June. Antigua experienced only seven wet days during the month, along with a 14-day dry spell recorded at V.C. Bird International Airport. The Standardized Precipitation Index, a widely used measure of drought severity, classified rainfall over the past 30 days as slightly dry.
The drought picture grows considerably more serious when examined over longer timeframes. For the three-month period from April through June, northern Antigua experienced extremely dry conditions, while the rest of the island was classified as moderately dry. Over the six-month period from January to June, eastern Antigua was rated extremely dry, with the remainder of the island assessed as severely dry. Looking back over the full year from July 2025 through June 2026, long-term drought conditions across Antigua were considered moderately dry.
Forecasters expect conditions to deteriorate further in the months ahead. Based on projections for the June-to-August period, northern Antigua is expected to enter a Drought Emergency by the end of August, while the rest of the island is forecast to remain under a Drought Warning, indicating that moderate or worse drought conditions are actively developing.
The outlook becomes more severe later in the year. The Meteorological Service projects that by the end of October, the entire island will be under a Drought Emergency for six-month drought conditions. By the end of November, Antigua is expected to remain under a Drought Emergency based on 12-month rainfall projections.
The bulletin outlines several measures that authorities may need to implement as conditions worsen. These include issuing public service announcements, activating drought management and response plans, enforcing water restrictions, promoting water recycling, protecting water resources, repairing infrastructure, and documenting drought-related impacts.
Regarding Barbuda, the report notes that meteorologists are unable to determine with certainty whether similar short-term drought conditions exist there due to limited rainfall data. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates suggest conditions on Barbuda are comparable to those in Antigua, and officials say the island will continue to be monitored for signs of increasing water stress.
The drought bulletin was prepared by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service in collaboration with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, which hosts the World Meteorological Organization-designated Caribbean Regional Climate Centre, and the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum. The report provides an assessment of conditions at the end of June and forecasts drought risks through August, October, and November.
