Antigua is on course to experience an islandwide drought emergency by the end of October, with conditions expected to remain critical through November if current trends persist. According to Antigua News Room, the warning comes from the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service's latest Monthly Drought Bulletin, which paints a progressively worsening picture for the island.
The July 2026 bulletin assesses drought conditions recorded through the end of June and provides forecasts for three-, six-, and 12-month periods ending in August, October, and November respectively. Despite several rainfall events during June, the overall outlook continues to deteriorate.
Antigua received 40.4 millimetres (1.59 inches) of rainfall in June, a figure classified as below normal. The island recorded seven wet days during the month and endured a 14-day dry spell at V.C. Bird International Airport, highlighting the uneven distribution of rainfall across the island.
Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Meteorological Service found that rainfall over the previous 30 days left Antigua slightly dry overall. Conditions grew significantly more severe, however, when assessed over longer time frames.
For the three-month period spanning April through June 2026, the northern region of Antigua experienced extremely dry conditions, while the rest of the island was classified as moderately dry. Over the six-month period from January through June, eastern sections were deemed extremely dry, with the remainder of Antigua categorized as severely dry. Long-term conditions covering July 2025 through June 2026 were assessed as moderately dry across the island.
The near-term forecast offers little comfort. The three-month SPI projection covering June through August anticipates a Drought Emergency in northern Antigua by the end of August, while the remainder of the island is expected to remain under a Drought Warning, indicating that moderate or worse drought conditions are continuing to develop.
The six-month outlook is more alarming. The forecast covering May through October projects a Drought Emergency across the entire island by the end of October. The 12-month long-range forecast, covering December 2025 through November 2026, indicates that Antigua will remain under a Drought Emergency by the end of November, signalling persistent and prolonged drought conditions.
The bulletin sets out a series of recommendations for government agencies, utilities, and the public to mitigate the impact of worsening drought. These include issuing public service announcements, implementing drought management and response plans, enforcing water restrictions and recycling measures, protecting water resources, repairing critical infrastructure, and reporting drought-related impacts.
While the report focuses primarily on Antigua, the Meteorological Service noted it remains unable to determine whether Barbuda is experiencing short-term drought due to limited observational data. Satellite-estimated rainfall, however, suggests conditions there are similar to those on Antigua. Officials said it remains uncertain whether drought warnings should formally apply to Barbuda, and that the island will continue to be monitored for signs of water stress.
Drought conditions are assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index, a widely used indicator that measures rainfall deficits over varying time periods. The bulletin defines short-term drought as dry conditions lasting between one and six consecutive months, and long-term drought as dry conditions persisting beyond six months. It identifies four alert levels: No Concern, Drought Watch, Drought Warning, and Drought Emergency — the highest category, requiring immediate attention.
The Monthly Drought Bulletin is produced by the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service in collaboration with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, which hosts the World Meteorological Organization-designated Caribbean Regional Climate Centre, and the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF).
