El Niño Conditions Established in Pacific, Official Declaration Expected Soon

Meteorologists now believe El Niño conditions have taken hold in the tropical Pacific, with an official declaration from climate authorities potentially just days away, according to Antigua News Room.

AccuWeather expert meteorologist Paul Pastelok confirmed the development, citing rising sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. "The sea surface temperatures are quickly rising in the equatorial Pacific, the region that is measured for El Niño. The latest weekly numbers are averaging out just over 0.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the long-term historic average, which is the primary criteria for El Niño," Pastelok said. "Most El Niños and La Niñas begin in the fall. This El Niño will most likely begin soon and strengthen quickly."

For residents of the Caribbean, the development carries significant implications for the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño generates wind shear more frequently across the Atlantic Basin, which inhibits tropical systems from organizing and intensifying. AccuWeather's 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast had previously projected 11 to 16 named storms.

AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said the emerging weather pattern could push that number toward the lower end of that range. "This El Niño will likely reduce Atlantic tropical activity even more. With the El Niño's arrival early in the hurricane season, we are now leaning closer to 11 named storms rather than 16. Inversely, the El Niño will increase eastern and central Pacific storm activity by fueling systems in the region," DaSilva said.

However, forecasters caution that a reduced storm count does not eliminate the threat of a catastrophic event. During El Niño years, hurricanes that develop close to coastlines pose a heightened danger precisely because they allow little time for preparation. It takes only one storm to cause widespread destruction.

AccuWeather experts also indicate there is a 30 to 40 percent chance the current pattern could evolve into a rare "Super El Niño," meaning conditions could persist through 2026 and potentially into 2027.

AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said a formal declaration may be imminent. "Based on our analysis, AccuWeather expects NOAA's Climate Prediction Center may declare an El Niño imminently, perhaps during its scheduled update Thursday, June 11," Porter said.