With general elections just one week away, political analyst Arvel Grant says the outcome will likely hinge on three closely contested constituencies: City East, St. George, and St. Mary's North. According to Antigua News Room, Grant argues that the narrow margins in these seats make them the decisive battlegrounds for both major parties.
"City East, St. George and St. Mary's North were all decided by less than three percent," Grant said. "That means neither the ABLP nor the UPP can be realistically confident of winning any of them."
Grant outlined a clear path to government for the opposition United Progressive Party. The UPP must hold the six seats it secured in 2023, win both City East and St. Mary's North, and rely on its Barbuda People's Movement partner to retain its seat. "That combination would give the UPP the numbers needed to form the government," he said.
For the ruling Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party, Grant described a more straightforward but still uncertain route. The party must retain its core eight seats and capture at least one of the three marginal constituencies. "If Labour retains its base and picks up just one of those marginal seats, it crosses the line," he added.
Grant also flagged Rural East, Rural North, and St. Paul's as additional constituencies worth watching, citing their history of shifting voter support. "These are not fixed seats — they are responsive to national mood and local dynamics," he said.
Voter registration levels and turnout emerged as additional factors in Grant's analysis. "High levels of re-registration can sometimes favour the opposition, while low turnout can lead to unpredictable results," he said, urging both parties to mobilise their supporters.
"Ultimately, the path to government will run through the three marginal seats," Grant concluded. "Whatever happens, the election will likely be determined by City East, St. George or St. Mary's North."
