Dear Sir
Bashar Al-Assad has fled a broken country after nearly 14 years of civil war leaving multiple semi-autonomous regions with a vast range of political and religious leadership views.
There are no prizes here and neighbors of that fractured state as well as the larger world should brace itself for a further decade of confusion as well as divided leadership.
Think Libya and Lebanon.
The many rebel groups and sub-groups were led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS which is in its latest moderate evolution as a Muslim extremist force that could easily revert to a Taliban-style movement at the right time.
Have a careful look at the bareheaded women waving flags to greet the incoming rebels. It may be the last they are seen in this iteration as Syria moves away from being a secular state.
The other two substantial groups following the lead of HTS are the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army and the US-funded Kurdish YPG subsidiary, the Syrian Democratic Forces who controlled the Northwest and Northeast respectively. They are bitter enemies, especially after the 2018 Turkish invasion of Afrin.
It will only be a matter of time before they are at each other’s throats. One does not have to look far to find the future of Syria.
From the post-conflict perforated Libya to the multi-layered Lebanon, these incomplete, often clash-ridden societies have become the new symbol of nationhood in the Middle East.
Israel and the United States are laughing all the way to supremacy as the Arab squabbling continues to weaken these isolated states that careen from autocracy to theocracy on a platform of wailing citizens.
– Peter Polack is the author of Syria: The Evolution Revolution published in the June 2014 edition of US Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center magazine and republished by Defence Procurement International 2 December 2024.
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