Government remains focused on keeping costs down and rebuilding Ontario’s economy
TORONTO, Canada – Today, the Ontario government released the 2024–25 First Quarter Finances, the first update on the province’s economic and fiscal outlook since the release of the 2024 Ontario Budget: Building a Better Ontario.
The report, which provides updated information about Ontario’s finances as of June 30, 2024, for the 2024–25 fiscal year, demonstrates that the province’s fiscal outlook remains on track despite ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
“From day one, our government has been a prudent, responsible manager of Ontario’s finances,” said Peter Bethlenfalvy, minister of finance. “We’ve reversed a trend of credit downgrades that our province faced under the previous government and we’re continuing to focus on keeping costs down for families, supporting Ontario workers and making our province a centre of investment so we can create more good-paying jobs, support high-quality services and put more money back into Ontario businesses and taxpayers’ pockets.”
In the first calendar quarter of 2024, Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.7 percent, after remaining unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2023, supported by higher exports and household spending.
Other key indicators throughout the report are on track with the projections in the 2024 Ontario Budget. The 2024–25 First Quarter Finances show the government is projecting a deficit of $9.8 billion in 2024–25, unchanged from the 2024 Ontario Budget forecast. Projections for government revenues are also aligned with the 2024 Ontario Budget forecast, projected to be $205.7 billion.
The outlook for program expense, at $200.6 billion, interest on debt expense and the cost of borrowing in 2024–25 also remain unchanged from the forecasts in the 2024 Ontario Budget.
The government will provide a comprehensive multi-year fiscal outlook as part of the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review later this year.
Quick Facts
Interest on debt expense is projected to be $13.9 billion, unchanged from the forecast in the 2024 Budget. Ontario’s forecast cost of borrowing has remained at 4.0 percent.
Distinct from the Contingency Fund, the 2024 Ontario Budget included a $1.0 billion reserve in 2024–25, to protect the fiscal outlook against any unforeseen changes in the province’s revenue and expense forecasts. The $1.0 billion reserve has been maintained as part of the current fiscal outlook
Ontario has a double-A credit rating with three of the four credit rating agencies. In June, Morningstar DBRS upgraded Ontario’s credit rating, the first credit rating upgrade since 2006.
Ontario has issued 16 Green Bonds totalling $19.25 billion since 2014–15, with $17.2 billion outstanding. Green Bonds remain a core component of Ontario’s borrowing program, and the province remains the largest issuer of Canadian dollar Green Bonds.
The government will provide its next financial update as part of the 2024 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, also referred to as the Fall Economic Statement, on or before November 15, 2024.
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