- Keynote speech given by HE Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General, at The Global Energy Show Canada in Calgary, Canada, on 10 June 2025.
By HE Haitham Al Ghais
… As far back as 1989, when OPEC member countries engaged with several non-OPEC countries, Alberta was present as an observer, a practice that continued over subsequent decades.
In the buildup to the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, OPEC organized a ministerial meeting on the environment in April 1992, with Alberta also being a participant.
In more recent years, in the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, at a time you all surely recall when our industry faced grave peril, many conversations were held by OPEC officials and global industry stakeholders around the world, including with Albertan counterparts.
These interactions I briefly highlighted underscore the fact that energy industry stakeholders globally, and in Alberta, have much in common with OPEC. These commonalities will serve as the basis for my remarks this morning.
The first, ladies and gentlemen, is our respective commitment to dialogue. Dialogues is an effective mechanism for addressing the industry’s challenges and opportunities. This is particularly the case given the inherent complexity of our industry.
OPEC values this dialogue because we are acutely conscious of the important role Canada and, specifically, Alberta play in the international oil industry. We respect and admire what has been achieved in this Province.
I could go on for a long time listing the impressive facts and figures about what the oil industry has achieved in Alberta. But I think it’s enough to highlight that oil production reached over 4.2 mb/d here in Alberta last year, and that Canada accounts for nearly 10% of the world’s proven oil reserves.
Canada is becoming an increasingly global supplier of oil. This international orientation is important given the rapidly evolving global energy landscape.
The second viewpoint OPEC and Alberta share is an appreciation of the wider economic and societal benefits of the oil industry. We are conscious of its impact on the global economy, its value to regional economies, its support for national development, and especially, its role as an employer of millions.
For OPEC, a job is never just a number on a spreadsheet. Behind every job is a person, a livelihood, a human story. It is a man or a woman, providing for their families, putting food on tables and shelter above heads.
The oil industry is a significant workplace globally. In terms of direct employment, the industry recruits highly skilled and specialized workers, but its impact extends far beyond this. For local and national economies, it has significant multiplier benefits, generating opportunities for a wide range of businesses.
It was therefore with great concern that we noted the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) advocacy of a Net Zero Emissions Scenario, a scenario that would have seen jobs in the global oil and gas industries reduce by a third. From over eight million workers being directly employed by the oil industry in 2023, this would be reduced to about 5.5 million by 2030, representing a staggering loss of 2.5 million jobs. While new opportunities would be created in other energy sectors, the challenges with the transferability of these jobs are by the IEA’s own reckoning, open questions.
OPEC and Alberta also share an understanding of the importance that petroleum and petroleum-derived products play in daily life. Sectors such as agriculture, forestry, construction, and mining depend on petroleum-powered equipment and petroleum-derived products. In healthcare, products like syringes, masks, disinfectants, artificial heart valves, MRI scanners, and many medicines are petroleum-derived.
The renewables industry is no different. The blades of a wind turbine use synthetic resins and polymers. Plastic is important for solar panels. Even an electric vehicle contains a host of petroleum-derived products.
A recognition of growing demand for petroleum and petroleum-derived products underpins OPEC’s long term growth forecasts.
Between 2024 and 2050
The world’s population is set to rise from 8 billion to 9.7 billion. Most, if not all of that growth will be in the developing world.
The global economy is expected to double in size. Urbanization trends will continue to intensify.
Around half a billion people are expected to move to cities by 2030, and ladies and gentlemen, to put that figure into context, it is the equivalent of about 320 new Calgarys.
As a result, in OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) we forecast that global primary energy demand is set to increase by a staggering 24 percent in this time frame. Oil demand alone is projected to increase to over 120 mb/d in 2050.
OPEC’s forecasts, which are based on robust analysis of the data, and not on ideology, clearly indicate that oil will remain an integral part of the energy mix, at still around 30% by 2050.
Simply put, there is no ‘peak in oil demand’ on the horizon. Oil from Alberta and from OPEC member countries will be essential in meeting the energy needs of the future.
Realizing this essential growth in production will only be possible with adequate and timely investments in the oil industry, with cumulative investments needs amounting to $17.4 trillion by 2050; or around $640 billion per year.
Given the importance of investments, OPEC has been very concerned by the IEA’s u-turning on the issue of industry investments. From public statements and records, between 2017 and 2020, the IEA called for more investments in the oil industry to serve as a cornerstone for energy security. Then, between 2021-2024, the IEA changed track and said there should be no investments in new oil and gas projects to meet their Net Zero Emissions Scenario. And yet, just a few months ago, at CERA Week, the IEA’s executive director once again stressed the importance of oil industry investments.
The consequences of this mixed messaging are serious for a capital-intensive industry with long lead times for investment. Reporting agencies should not reverse course every couple of years if they want to be considered credible. As OPEC has consistently and repeatedly stated, inadequate investment is a serious matter; it endangers energy security.
As can be clearly seen at this event, a belief on the critical need for adequate and timely investments in the oil industry, is a view shared by OPEC and Alberta. It is a topic that offers further avenues for dialogue going forward.
Sustainable stability in the oil market is a prerequisite for an investor-friendly environment. The goal of creating such an environment drives all the actions taken by OPEC and our partners under the umbrella of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’, sometimes known as OPEC+. These actions have proven their value to the market, and producers and consumers across the globe.
The ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ since 2017 has underpinned global oil market stability. Through this, OPEC has achieved a lot. We encourage all producers, particularly large producers, to promote oil market stability that is so essential for the health of the industry.
Another area that Alberta and OPEC share similar perspectives on is the revolutionary promise of technological innovation. The success in Alberta of developing techniques that separate bitumen from the sand, clay and water it has been fused to, is testimony to technology’s game-changing potential. This breakthrough transformed the commercial viability of the oil sands.
Such innovation will be critical in assisting the industry in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Canada has been at the forefront of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS). There are world-class research and testing facilities in many parts of Canada, including here in Alberta.
Alberta specifically is a global leader in harnessing this technology, and the province has extensive energy infrastructure and subsurface geologic storage capacity for CCUS. It is commendable that Alberta has a proven track record of integrating emissions reduction technology into energy production.
OPEC also recognizes the vital importance of CCUS in tackling the emissions challenge. Our member countries are investing in this technology, as can be viewed at Jubail in Saudi Arabia; Al Reyadah in the UAE; and in Salah in Algeria, to name just a few examples.
OPEC member countries also recognize the importance of investing in renewable sources of energy. We do this because energy sources are not locked in a zero-sum competition, but rather we recognize all forms of energy will be necessary to meet the demand needs of the future.
Before, I conclude, I would like to say a few words on climate, to ensure that OPEC’s position on this important topic is crystal clear.
At OPEC, we take climate matters very seriously. As I mentioned earlier, before the Rio Earth Summit, back in 1992, we convened a Ministerial Meeting to discuss environmental matters.
OPEC has participated in every meeting of the COP since they first began thirty years ago and will continue to do so going forward.
All our member countries are signatories to the Paris Agreement. Yet, it is important to recognize the oft-forgotten point that the objective of the Paris Agreement is emissions reduction; not choosing energy sources.
Thus, negotiations must adhere to the principle of ‘Common but Differentiated Responsibilities’, which reflects countries’ respective capabilities and their social and economic condition, as well as historical responsibility. There is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ formula for addressing the climate challenge.
It is also very important that developed countries support developing countries through climate finance and technological transfer, and ensure these funds get delivered.
There has been a recent pushback against the unsustainable rush to unrealistic Net Zero targets, which fixated on deadlines and policy proposal detached from reality. We welcome the move towards policies grounded in pragmatic energy realities, that recognize that we face an emissions challenge, rather than an energy sources challenge.
The oil industry must be part of the solution and not be sidelined.
OPEC’s approach to our energy future can be summarized as follows:
- An inclusive all-energies, all-technologies, and all-peoples energy future.
- If I may conclude by summarizing my overriding message to today’s event.
We greatly admire and respect what the oil industry in Alberta has achieved, in terms of production growth, and in the realm of technological innovation and global leadership in carbon management techniques.
We recognize the important role that Alberta plays in the oil industry; a reality that will continue in the future.
Furthermore, we believe that our common perspectives mean there is great potential in intensifying cooperation in the future.
So once again, thank you for the invitation today and let us all feel proud to belong to this industry; an industry that has fueled and developed the world and will continue to do so for many years and decades ahead.
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