VIENNA, Austria – The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global EV Outlook 2025, published this week, offers a further glimpse into its backtracking on its peak oil demand by 2030 narrative.
Across all vehicle modes, the Agency says that the deployment of EVs is set to displace slightly over five million barrels a day (mb/d) of oil globally in its STEPS scenario by 2030. This compares to its 2024 report that stated a STEPS figure of around 6 mb/d, and a Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario figure of 8.2 mb/d. The Agency did not publish NZE figures in its 2025 publication.
The almost 1 mb/d difference is significant. It is especially significant for policymakers, industries and businesses, given that 2030 is less than five years away. Moreover, given this revision, could we also expect further ones in the future? In this regard, it is important to highlight a number of key data points and forecasts in the publication.
The Agency has not revised the total number of global EVs by 2030 in STEPS. The 2025 report has 250 million EVs across all modes, broadly the same as in 2024. This compares to 186 million EVs projected in OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2024. The IEA’s projection is an approximate fourfold increase over last year’s stock, or around 200 million additional EVs. This raises the question: is this realistic given the trends we see before us today?
These trends are specifically related to the EV sales outlook, policy development, as well as pushback from consumers on many net-zero related policies. These factors play out at the regional level, which is where the Agency’s changes are reflected.
This can be viewed in actual data from major markets, with the report referencing that EV sales “stagnated” in Europe last year as subsidies and other supportive schemes reduced, and in the US, EV sales growth “slowed down significantly” in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Looking ahead, the Agency also slashed its 2030 EV sales penetration forecast for the US from around 55 to 20 percent, due to the expected rollback of EV subsidies and fuel economy standards under the new US Administration. For the EU, despite stagnating EV sales and loosening targets, the Agency projects a rebound for the region in the coming years.
It is also interesting to note that of the reported 17 million global EV sales in 2024, over eleven million, or about 65 percent, were in one market alone: China. In fact, the Agency’s data sees China at over 150 million EVs by 2030, an approximate 60 percent global market share, with the 2025 report seeing a shift in EV numbers from the US to China. This is the main reason for the lower oil displacement number for 2030 as China has a lower average per vehicle consumption and a higher component of plug-ins that still consume oil products.
Additionally, we need to be continually mindful of challenges facing the future expansion of EVs. To a large degree, growth so far has been driven by direct and indirect governmental subsidies. It remains to be seen how sales will evolve once these subsidies are eliminated. Moreover, recent announcements from major car manufacturers to delay EV investments and re-think future strategies is a clear signal that market realities have fallen behind expectations.
In part, the pausing of expansion strategies reflects the increasing resistance of customers to pay much higher prices for EVs, as well as a slow expansion of the required charging infrastructure. The Agency’s report indicates that “globally, public charging capacity … would need to grow almost ninefold to 2030” to support the projected EV stock expansion.
Alongside these concerns are others related to grid expansion and the availability of critical minerals in the long term. For example, the IEA’s report states that “electricity demand could increase more than fourfold, reaching 780 TWh” by 2030 and the sector is not the only one requiring huge electricity increases. While none of these signals indicate a lasting change in the actual trend for future EVs expansion, they clearly indicate a slower rate of growth in the coming years.
The IEA’s executive director has stated in recent times that the world is moving into an ‘Age of Electricity’ and away from fossil fuels. This does not seem to be borne out by its Global EV Outlook 2025. The report is further evidence of the Agency’s unrealistic narrative of peak oil demand by 2030. It undermines the narrative that there is no need for investment in new fossil fuel supply. And it underscores the importance of data-driving policy – not policy-driving data.
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