By Y. Tony Yang
The election of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost as Pope Leo XIV on May 8, 2025, marks a pivotal moment not just for the Catholic Church, but also for Taiwan’s precarious position in global diplomacy. As the first American-born pope, who leads one of Taiwan’s last remaining formal diplomatic allies in the world, Leo XIV’s papacy arrives at a time when the Vatican’s relationship with Beijing threatens to overshadow its historic commitment to the democratic island.
The early signals from the new pontificate are troubling for Taiwan. Despite weeks of lobbying by Taipei to secure an invitation for President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) to attend Leo’s papal installation on May 18, it was former Vice President Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) who ultimately represented Taiwan at the ceremony. While neither the Vatican nor Taiwan confirmed whether Lai received an invitation, the diplomatic slight echoes a familiar pattern of the Holy See’s careful calibration to avoid offending Beijing.
This papal brush-off represents more than ceremonial protocol—it reveals the Vatican’s continued pursuit of warmer ties with China at Taiwan’s expense. The Holy See has declined to station an ambassador in Taiwan since 1971 and notably refused to join Taiwan’s other diplomatic allies in their annual effort to secure observer status for the island at the World Health Assembly. These symbolic snubs, as Vatican observers note, are intended to signal to Beijing that the Holy See remains open to switching diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing.
The Francis Legacy: Accommodation at what cost?
Pope Leo XIV inherits a complex China policy shaped by his predecessor’s controversial 2018 agreement with Beijing. The secret deal, renewed for four years in November 2024, ostensibly allows the Vatican and Chinese authorities to share responsibility for appointing bishops in China’s state-controlled Catholic Church. Pope Francis and his supporters viewed this as a pragmatic step toward protecting China’s estimated 12 million Catholics and healing the painful divide between the state-recognized church and the underground church loyal to Rome.
Yet, the agreement’s track record tells a different story. Beijing has violated the pact repeatedly, appointing bishops without Vatican consultation. Notably, in the weeks between Pope Francis’s death in April and Leo’s selection in early May, Chinese authorities confirmed two new bishops without Vatican approval—a clear signal to the new pope about Beijing’s true intentions. Meanwhile, Catholic persecution has intensified under Xi Jinping’s (習近平) regime: with bishops detained or disappeared, underground churches shuttered, and new regulations issued that severely restrict religious activities.
The symbolic nadir for the Vatican’s policy came in July 2021, when Bishop Paul Lei Shiyin celebrated the Chinese Communist Party’s centenary in the cathedral of Leshan in Sichuan—a stark illustration of how Beijing seeks to co-opt rather than accommodate the Catholic Church. Despite such provocations, Vatican representatives under Francis consistently argued that an imperfect deal was better than no engagement at all.
Leo XIV: A Pope caught between superpowers
Pope Leo XIV’s unique position as both an American citizen and Taiwan ally places him at the center of intensifying US-China strategic competition. President Donald Trump, who has already pressured the Vatican to abandon its China agreement during his first term, will undoubtedly scrutinize the first American pontiff’s handling of Beijing—particularly given Leo’s apparent lack of sympathy for Trump’s political movement, as evidenced by his past social media criticism of Trump administration policies.
Trump’s nominee for US ambassador to the Holy See, Brian Burch, has already signalled the administration’s position, stating at his Senate confirmation hearing that he would push the Vatican “to resist the idea that a foreign government has any role whatsoever in choosing the leadership of a private religious institution.” This sets up a potential clash between the pope’s desire for church unity and American foreign policy priorities.
The Taiwan question adds another layer of complexity. The Holy See remains one of only twelve states maintaining formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, making it Beijing’s most prized diplomatic target in Europe. China views pressuring international actors to derecognize Taiwan as central to its foreign policy, and the Vatican represents a particularly attractive prize given its global moral authority.
Former Taiwanese ambassador to the Holy See Matthew Lee (李世明) offered a glimmer of hope, revealing that during a 2023 meeting then-Cardinal Prevost demonstrated clear understanding of the difference between democratic Taiwan and communist China. However, understanding and action are different things, and the early diplomatic signals suggest that caution may override conviction.
The moral clarity Taiwan deserves
Taiwan’s relationship with the Vatican transcends mere diplomatic convenience—it represents a profound alignment of values. Taiwan’s democratic system, grounded in the rule of law and religious freedom, embodies the very ideals the Catholic Church claims to champion. The island’s peaceful transition to democracy, its vibrant civil society, and its protection of minority rights all stand in stark contrast to Beijing’s authoritarian system.
The Holy See’s loyalty to Taiwan through decades of Chinese pressure has served as a rare beacon of moral steadfastness in international relations. Yet this principled stance now faces its greatest test under a pope who has chosen the name Leo in honour of Pope Leo XIII, who developed modern Catholic social teaching during the Second Industrial Revolution. Leo XIV has explicitly stated his concern about the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s challenges to “human dignity, justice, and labor”—values that Taiwan upholds, and China systematically violates.
The temptation to prioritize access to China’s massive Catholic population over fidelity to a small democratic ally will be immense. Beijing’s growing global influence offers immediate diplomatic opportunities, while Taiwan provides little beyond moral witness. Yet, true leadership requires seeing beyond expedient calculations to eternal principles.
Historical lessons and contemporary warnings
History offers sobering lessons about religious institutions that bend too readily to authoritarian pressure. Pope John Paul II’s unwavering support for religious freedom behind the Iron Curtain helped galvanize democratic movements across Eastern Europe, demonstrating that moral resilience can reshape history. Taiwan today, like Eastern Europe then, represents not a threat to peace but a testament to what principled perseverance can achieve.
Cardinal Joseph Zen of Hong Kong, now in his nineties, has repeatedly warned that excessive compromise risks hollowing out the Church’s witness from within. Chinese Catholic voices are increasingly critical of the Vatican’s approach, noting that local bishops, priests, and senior religious figures were never consulted on the bishop agreement. Their exclusion from dialogue about their own fate speaks volumes about Beijing’s true intentions.
Moreover, any future dialogue with China must be grounded in non-negotiable commitments to religious liberty, the dignity of believers, and freedom of conscience. The current agreement has achieved none of these goals while providing Beijing with international legitimacy it has not earned.
A pivotal choice for Pope Leo XIV
The early months of Leo XIV’s papacy will reveal whether he sees his role as primarily pastoral or prophetic. The decision facing him is stark: to continue the accommodation policies that have yielded minimal gains while legitimizing an increasingly repressive regime, or to chart a new course grounded in the Church’s fundamental commitment to human dignity.
Taiwan’s importance extends beyond bilateral Vatican-Taipei relations. In Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia—regions with large Catholic populations—the Holy See’s continued recognition of Taiwan signals that principles still matter in global diplomacy. If the Vatican were to abandon Taiwan, it would trigger a cascade of diplomatic losses and diminish the Church’s credibility in advocating for human rights elsewhere.
The timing is particularly crucial as Pope Leo XIV inherits a Church facing declining influence in Europe and North America while growing in the Global South. These emerging Catholic communities are watching to see whether the Church will stand with democracy and human rights, or accommodate authoritarian power for the sake of access.
The path forward
Pope Leo XIV has an opportunity to demonstrate that the Catholic Church’s future lies not in chasing influence but in reaffirming eternal truths. Supporting Taiwan is not about choosing sides in a political dispute—it is about affirming a community that has upheld human dignity, religious freedom, and peaceful coexistence despite enormous external pressure.
The pope’s response to the Taiwan question will test whether moral witness remains central to Catholic identity or whether pragmatic calculation has replaced prophetic courage. As a world facing deepening authoritarianism desperately needs institutions that stand for something beyond immediate interests, Taiwan represents a choice: to affirm that democratic communities matter, that freedom can thrive even under siege, and that human dignity is worth defending even when the cost is high.
Taiwan will continue to stand firm and free regardless of Vatican policy. The question is whether Pope Leo XIV will choose to stand with Taiwan—not for political gain, but because it is the right thing to do. His choice will define not only his papacy, but the Catholic Church’s moral authority for generations to come.
In choosing the name Leo, the new pope honored a predecessor who navigated the challenges of industrial revolution while maintaining the Church’s social mission. Today’s revolution in artificial intelligence and global governance presents even greater challenges to human dignity. The test of Pope Leo XIV’s legacy will be whether he applies his predecessor’s courage to defend the vulnerable against the powerful—starting with Taiwan’s right to exist as a free and democratic society.
The main point: The newly elected Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, must decide whether to maintain the Vatican’s diplomatic ties with democratic Taiwan or switch recognition to authoritarian China. Early signs are troubling: Taiwan’s president wasn’t invited to the papal installation, while Beijing continues violating a 2018 Vatican agreement on bishop appointments and persecuting Catholics. As one of Taiwan’s last diplomatic allies globally, the Vatican’s choice will test whether the Catholic Church prioritizes moral principles or political pragmatism. Pope Leo’s decision could determine Taiwan’s international standing and the Church’s credibility in defending human rights worldwide.
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