USA / ST LUCIA – Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations
- In response to a request from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in Saint Lucia, a technical assistance (TA) mission took place between September 2–13, 2024, to support the development of experimental estimates of expenditure-based GDP (GDP-E). The CSO desire to publish GDP-E as a complimentary product to production-based GDP (GDP-P).
- The mission focused on the following aspects: Providing a sources and methods assessment for each expenditure category; compiling experimental estimates of GDP-E; identifying likely data errors and suggesting strategies for fixing them; and recommending a path which would lead to publication of GDP-E.
- The mission prepared a sources and methods assessment. The methods focus of both supply and demand-side indicators of household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), demand-side indicators for non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) and valuables, and direct source data estimation for international trade in goods and services, and government final consumption expenditure (GFCE). A product flow approach for HFCE and GFCF, which considers domestic production, international trade, and estimates of intermediate consumption (IC) was developed. As well, recommendations on constant price methods were introduced for international trade.
- Experimental GDP-E estimates were compiled from 2016 to 2023. The methods make use of international merchandise trade statistics (IMTS), balance of payments (BOP) statistics, the benchmark supply and use tables (SUT), published GDP-P series, and various CPI and producer price index (PPI) data. The accuracy of GDP-E largely depends on the quality of these components.
- The preliminary results are mixed. In the years immediately following the benchmark year (2016), the outcomes are reasonable, with only minor statistical discrepancies between GDP-E and GDP-P. However, by 2018, these discrepancies increase and widen through the COVID-19 pandemic, both at current and constant 2018 prices. The mission identified several potential causes, including outliers in International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) data, volatility in domestic production, and unexpected changes in certain price indices.
- Concurrent compilation of GDP-E could help identify issues in GDP-P. In the short term, the mission recommends continuing the compilation of experimental GDP-E as a tool to detect potential anomalies or errors in the source data. This approach should enhance the quality of GDP-P, price indices, and international trade statistics.
- Plan for publication of GDP-E alongside the next GDP rebasing. The CSO is planning to conduct a Household Budget Survey (HBS) in 2025, which will support the compilation of SUT in 2026 and the rebasing of GDP. The product dimension of the SUT should be expanded to improve the estimation of HFCE and GFCF in both the benchmark year and subsequent GDP-E estimation. The existing methodology for GDP-E can be applied to the rebased series to identify and correct any source data errors, enabling the publication of GDP-E with next GDP rebasing.
- To support progress in the above work areas, the mission proposed the following priority recommendations needed to improve estimates of GDP.
Section V. List of officials met during the Mission
Sean Mathurin, Central Statistics Office
Richard Harris, Central Statistics Office
Arnold Lafeuillee, Central Statistics Office
Nola Anthony, Central Statistics Office
Abigail Leo, Central Statistics Office
IMF | CARTAC Technical Assistance Report – Saint Lucia Expenditure-Based Gross Domestic Product
The post IMF – CARTAC Technical Assistance Report: St Lucia Expenditure-Based Gross Domestic Product [Sept 2-13, 2024] appeared first on Caribbean News Global.
