- “The economy is expected to grow on average 14 percent per year over the next five years, driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil GDP growth.” ~ IMF.
WASHINGTON / GUYANA – Guyana’s economic transformation is advancing strongly and broadening in scale, the executive board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana, said: “Rapidly expanding oil production, strong non-oil output, and large-scale public infrastructure investment supported the highest real GDP growth rate in the world, averaging 47 percent per year since 2022.”
The 2025 Article IV Consultation with Guyana continued:
“Real oil GDP increased by nearly 58 percent in 2024, while real non-oil GDP expanded over 13 percent, reflecting a solid broad-based performance across sectors. Inflation reached 2.9 percent by end-2024, from 2 percent at end-2023, driven largely by higher food prices (affected by international food prices and earlier floods). The overall fiscal deficit widened from 5.1 percent of GDP (11.7 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2022 to 7.3 percent of GDP (21 percent of non-oil GDP) in 2024 reflecting a large increase in capital expenditure.”
“Driven by higher oil exports, Guyana’s current account surplus more than doubled in 2024, reaching about 24½ percent of GDP, adding,”By end-2024, gross international reserves surpassed US$1 billion, while the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulated over US$1.1 billion in 2024, reaching US$3.1 billion (over 12½ percent of GDP).”
The economic outlook remains highly favourable, says the IMF.
“The economy is expected to grow on average 14 percent per year over the next five years, driven by robust oil production and strong non-oil GDP growth. Positive spillovers from the oil sector and improvements in infrastructure, productivity, and resilience are expected to boost the real non-oil GDP growth to an average of 6¾ percent over the medium term, about 3 percentage points higher than the pre-oil decade average. While inflation is projected to edge up to around 4 percent in 2025, the overall fiscal deficit and the current account surplus are expected to narrow in 2025. Over the medium term, the continued expansion of oil production will further strengthen the external position, with substantial savings accumulation in the NRF.”
Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced, the IMF executive board 2025 Article IV consultation concludes.
“On the upside, additional oil discoveries and productivity-enhancing investments, including to strengthen energy resilience would further bolster Guyana’s long-term economic prospects, while expanding construction activity would support higher short-term non-oil GDP growth.
“Downside risks stem from overheating pressures which, if not contained, would lead to higher inflation and a real exchange rate appreciation beyond the level consistent with a balanced expansion of the economy. Commodity price volatility in a highly uncertain global environment, including from trade policy and climate shocks could also adversely affect inflation and alter the macroeconomic outlook.”
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