- In its latest update of the ILO World Employment and Social Outlook, the ILO identifies geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions as key factors in a weakened economic outlook, leading to slower job growth.
GENEVA, Switzerland, (ILO News) – The International Labour Organization (ILO) has revised its global employment forecast for 2025, projecting the creation of 53 million jobs instead of the previously estimated 60 million. This translates into a reduction in global employment growth from 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent this year. The drop – which is the equivalent of around seven million fewer additional jobs – reflects a downgraded global economic outlook, as GDP growth is expected at 2.8 per cent, down from a previous projection of 3.2 percent.
The ILO’s latest employment estimates, issued in its new World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) Update, are based on economic growth projections from the recently released International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
In addition, the ILO estimates that close to 84 million jobs across 71 countries are directly or indirectly tied to US consumer demand. These jobs – and the incomes they support – are now increasingly at risk of disruption due to elevated trade tensions. The Asia-Pacific region is where most of these jobs – 56 million – are concentrated. Canada and Mexico, however, have the highest share of jobs – 17.1 percent – that are exposed.
“We know that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than we had anticipated it would. Our report now tells us that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions continue, and if we do not address fundamental questions that are reshaping the world of work, then they will most certainly have negative ripple effects on labour markets worldwide,” said the ILO director-general Gilbert F. Houngbo.
The report also highlights troubling trends in income distribution. The labour income share – which is the proportion of GDP going to workers – fell globally from 53.0 percent in 2014 to 52.4 percent in 2024. Africa and the Americas experienced the largest declines. Had this share remained unchanged, labour income globally would have been US$1 trillion higher in 2024, or US$290 more per worker in constant purchasing power terms. This erosion in the share of global income going to workers puts upward pressure on inequality and highlights a disconnect between economic growth and worker compensation.
The report points to a shift in employment towards high-skilled jobs. Women are leading this trend. Between 2013 and 2023, the share of women employed in high-skilled occupations rose from 21.2 to 23.2 percent – while the proportion of men in high-skilled occupations was around 18 per cent in 2023. Yet occupational segregation persists, with women underrepresented in sectors such as construction and overrepresented in clerical and caregiving roles.
And while educational attainment continues to rise worldwide, the labour market remains characterized by significant educational mismatches. As of 2022, only 47.7 percent of workers held qualifications that appropriately matched their job requirements. The share of under-educated workers declined from 37.9 to 33.4 percent over the past decade, but the share of over-educated workers increased from 15.5 to 18.9 percent.
The report also addresses the effects of new technologies on the world of work. It finds that nearly one in four workers may find their jobs transformed by generative AI. A larger share of jobs in medium-skilled occupations have some degree of exposure, but a greater percentage of jobs in high-skilled occupations have high exposure, whereby existing tasks could potentially be automated by AI.
“The findings of this report on the employment landscape are sobering, but they can also act as a roadmap for the creation of decent jobs. We can make a difference, and we can do so by strengthening social protection, investing in skills development, promoting social dialogue, and building inclusive labour markets to ensure that technological change benefits all. And we must do so with urgency, ambition, and solidarity,” explained the director-general.
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