By Bayat Group
President Donald Trump has set the investment migration industry abuzz with his recent announcement proposing the elimination of the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program in favor of a new “Gold Card” visa. This move has sparked uncertainty among investors and industry stakeholders, raising questions about the feasibility of the proposed visa and the future of EB-5.
What is known about the Gold Card Visa so far?
Details about the ‘Gold Card’ visa remain sparse. During his first full cabinet meeting of his second term, president Trump, alongside secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick, unveiled the Gold Card initiative as a means to alleviate the nation’s debt.
The Trump Gold Card visa seeks to draw ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) investors by granting US residency and citizenship in return for a $5 million investment. While some see it as a strategy to reduce the national debt, others argue it’s a pay-to-play scheme that benefits the ultra-wealthy and that the proposed numbers by the president are unrealistic.
Lutnick suggested that issuing 200,000 of these high-priced visas could generate $1 trillion in revenue. Trump further extrapolated, stating, “If we sell a million, that’s $5 trillion,” emphasizing the program’s potential to significantly reduce financial burdens. “I happen to think it’ll sell like crazy. It’s a market”, the president added.
However, these projections may be overly optimistic. According to the World Ultra Wealth Report 2024 by Altrata, the global population of ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs)—those with net assets exceeding $30 million—stood at approximately 426,330 in 2023.
Notably, the United States is home to more than 225,000 UHNWIs, representing a significant portion of this elite group. Given these figures, the pool of potential applicants for the Gold Card visa is substantially smaller than the numbers proposed by the Trump administration. Even if every UHNWI worldwide opted for this program—a highly improbable scenario—it would fall short of the projected million visas. Therefore, achieving such revenue targets could span several decades, if attainable at all. The reality is that the global market simply does not have the volume of investors necessary to achieve Trump’s desired projections.
Sam Bayat, founder of Bayat Group, further emphasizes the issue, stating:
“The $5 million investment suggests that applicants would need a net worth of at least $50 million to consider this option viable. This high barrier to entry raises concerns about the program’s appeal to ultra-high-net-worth individuals.”
A shift in immigration policy
Unlike the current EB-5 investor visa, which requires foreign nationals to invest at least $800,000 or $1,05 million in a US business that creates jobs intending to obtain Green Cards in the USA, the Gold Card would provide an even more exclusive pathway to US residency and citizenship.
Mona Shah, a prominent US immigration lawyer, has highlighted the fundamental differences between the two programs in her blog. “The EB-5 program has long been structured as an entrepreneurial investment initiative rather than a pay-for-residency scheme. Investors assume financial risk, and their capital is used for job creation,” she explains.
The Gold Card visa, in contrast, could be perceived as an outright sale of US residency, which has historically faced resistance in Congress. Additionally, there are numerous unanswered questions: Would Gold Card holders be required to generate jobs in the US? Is the $5 million threshold applicable to investments or non-refundable contributions? Would there be a cap on the number of visas issued? How would security screenings be handled, particularly for applicants from countries like China and Iran? Would the eligibility criteria favor certain nationalities or industries? What safeguards would be in place to prevent potential misuse of the program?
Another key issue that could deter potential applicants is taxation. Bayat notes that “a critical consideration is the tax implications for these wealthy investors. As US tax residents, they would be subject to worldwide income taxation, potentially exposing a significant portion of their wealth to US tax authorities. This aspect could be a major deterrent, especially compared to more tax-friendly golden visa programs in other countries.”
The questions are many, and the answers will likely be revealed in the coming weeks as the story is still developing.
Can Trump unilaterally cancel the EB-5 Program?
A major concern among investors is whether the EB-5 program is genuinely at risk. However, immigration lawyers emphasize that president Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally cancel or modify EB-5. Immigration law falls under Congress’s jurisdiction, and any attempt to terminate the program would require legislative action.
Furthermore, the EB-5 program was reauthorized under the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act (RIA) in 2022, securing its existence until at least 2027. Given the current political landscape in Congress, it is unlikely that a repeal would pass smoothly. Investors currently in the EB-5 pipeline can also take comfort in the fact that changes to immigration programs are typically not retroactive, meaning existing applicants should not be affected.
Economic and political implications
Despite the rhetoric surrounding its possible elimination, EB-5 has demonstrated significant economic benefits. Over three decades, it has generated billions in foreign investment and created hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US. The program has also been used by prominent figures, including Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, whose family real estate projects have benefited from EB-5 capital.
The new secretary of commerce has criticized EB-5, calling it an outdated system in need of reform. However, opponents argue that his statements reflect a misunderstanding of how EB-5 operates. The investment migration stakeholders note that the program was designed to attract foreign capital to underserved areas and stimulate economic growth. Eliminating it could harm real estate and infrastructure projects that depend on EB-5 funding.
The proposed Gold Card program, if implemented, would cater to ultra-high-net-worth individuals, and to succeed, it should offer benefits such as residency without taxation on global income. Yet, as Bayat points out, “Unlike some European golden visa programs (Residency by Investment – RBIs) that offer more lenient residency requirements, the US proposal maintains strict criteria for maintaining residency status and qualifying for citizenship. This rigidity might make the US program less attractive compared to more flexible options in Europe or the Caribbean.”
Will Congress support the Gold Card Visa?
Historically, Congress has been cautious about the idea of ‘selling’ Green Cards. The EB-5 program, despite criticisms, has always been framed as a job creation initiative rather than a direct purchase of residency. The Gold Card visa would mark a significant departure from this model, making it a politically sensitive issue.
Mona Shah argues that any serious attempt to replace EB-5 with a wealth-based visa would likely face resistance. “Even among Republicans, there is reluctance to introduce a program that could be perceived as favoritism for the ultra-rich. It is doubtful that Congress would support a system that lacks a clear economic benefit for American workers.”
A strategic play rather than a concrete plan?
Given these complexities, some observers believe that Trump’s announcement is more of a political manoeuvre than an imminent policy shift. The move may be aimed at rallying support among certain voter demographics or reshaping the investment migration landscape to align with his administration’s broader economic agenda.
At this stage, it is too early to determine whether the Gold Card visa will materialize or if it is merely a speculative proposal. What remains clear, however, is that the EB-5 program will continue to be a focal point in the investment immigration debate. For now, stakeholders should remain vigilant but not panic, as substantive changes would require congressional approval and face significant legal and political hurdles.
Conclusion
The fate of EB-5 and the potential introduction of a Gold Card visa remain uncertain, but one thing is obvious: investment-based immigration is at a crossroads. While the EB-5 program has proven its economic value, the Trump administration’s proposal raises questions about the future direction of US residency-by-investment options. As Mona Shah advises, “Investors should stay informed but not rush to conclusions. EB-5 remains in place, and any potential changes will take time to unfold.”
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