By Sir Ronald Sanders
A rules-based international trading system has long been a foundation of global commerce, providing stability, fostering investment, and ensuring fair competition. Though imperfect, it has helped to underpin economic growth worldwide, benefiting major economic powers particularly, but with some benefits to smaller states as well.
One of its key advantages has been predictability – a crucial factor in business planning, trade expansion, and dispute resolution. This system, particularly through the World Trade Organization (WTO), has historically provided a negotiated framework for resolving disputes rather than resorting to unilateral action that could lead to retaliation, economic instability, and geopolitical friction.
It is against this backdrop that the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) is now reviewing the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act (CBERA) – a trade programme that has been a cornerstone of US-Caribbean relations since its enactment in 1984. Given the economic ties between the US and the Caribbean, and the region’s strategic importance, this review comes at a pivotal moment for shaping future trade relations.
A strong and reliable trade partnership
Despite global trade deficits, the US consistently enjoys a trade surplus with Caribbean nations. In 2023, the US trade surplus in goods with the 14 independent CARICOM nations collectively was $7.4 billion; in 2024, it stood at $5.8 billion. The Caribbean has proven to be a loyal and valuable market for US goods.
The US surplus in trade with little Antigua and Barbuda alone was $960.3 million in 2023 and $550 million in 2024. These figures reflect an economic reality – CARICOM nations are not competitors to US industries; they are consumers of US products, from agriculture and technology to financial services and tourism-related industries.
The recent reduction in the overall US surplus with CARICOM is largely due to its essential importation of oil and gas from Guyana. In 2024, Guyana’s trade surplus with the US rose to $4 billion from $1.9 billion in 2023—a reflection of the US’s need for secure and reliable energy sources.
The risks of disrupting a stable economic relationship
Any weakening of CBERA’s trade benefits would not only harm Caribbean economies but would also negatively impact the US itself. A decline in economic activity in the region would lead to: reduced demand for US goods and services, affecting revenues for American businesses; increased economic instability, raising the risk of irregular migration to the US;  and a greater foothold for drug trafficking and organized crime, which directly threatens US security.
History has shown that economic downturns in the Caribbean translate into security and migration challenges for the US. The best way to prevent these risks is not to weaken trade ties, but to strengthen them in a mutually beneficial manner.
A modernized approach: Expanding CBERA to include services
The Caribbean economy has evolved significantly over the past few decades – services now account for more than 75 percent of employment and 66 percent of total output. The US is already a dominant provider of services in finance, healthcare, technology, education, and tourism-related industries.
However, CBERA currently does not include trade in services – a gap that, if addressed, would benefit both US businesses and Caribbean economies. In 2024 alone, US exports of services increased by $81.2 billion to $1,107.8 billion, highlighting the strength and growth of this sector. Including services under CBERA would allow US firms to expand their market share in the Caribbean, particularly in financial services, digital industries, and tourism.
The Caribbean, in turn, would gain greater access to the US market, ensuring more stable trade relations and predictable arrangements, such as in correspondent banking services, which are vital to financial stability in the region.
The unresolved WTO dispute: A test for rules-based trade
During my testimony before the USITC, I raised the case of Antigua and Barbuda’s longstanding WTO dispute with the US. Despite strictly adhering to WTO rules since 1995, Antigua and Barbuda has yet to see a resolution to the 2004 WTO ruling, which awarded the country compensation for losses in trade in services. As ambassador to the WTO at the time, I led the case.
The WTO authorized a compensation mechanism allowing Antigua to sell US intellectual property rights without paying the fees until the US settled the matter. However, Antigua and Barbuda has refrained from doing so, choosing instead to pursue a good-faith settlement, not least because a criterion for benefiting from CBERA is the non-exploitation of US intellectual property.
This unresolved issue – where a small nation rightfully won its case at the highest trade dispute body – remains a blemish on US global trade leadership, and I urged the USITC to recommend that the matter should be addressed as part of its findings on the future of CBERA.
A clear opportunity for US policymakers
The US and the Caribbean have long shared a close economic and strategic relationship. At a time of shifting global trade dynamics, CBERA is not just about economic policy; it is about reinforcing US leadership, strengthening regional security, and maintaining economic stability with a group of its closest neighbours.
The choice before US policymakers is clear: continue to strengthen trade ties with a region that is already closely linked to US economic and security interests, or risk losing influence to external actors seeking greater engagement with the Caribbean. CARICOM nations do not see trade relations as a choice between one partner or another. The region has remained faithful to its trading partners, particularly the US, from which it purchases nearly 70 percent of its imports, including food and essential goods.
Looking ahead: The case for expanding CBERA
As the USITC reviews the impact of CBERA, the case for its continuation and expansion is strong. The economic data and strategic considerations point to a clear conclusion: continue the terms of trade in goods under CBERA; expand CBERA to include trade in services, aligning with the changed Caribbean economy and opening new opportunities for US businesses; and reinforce the US-Caribbean partnership, ensuring economic growth, regional stability, and security for both sides.
A stronger, more resilient Caribbean benefits not only the region but also the US. The time to act is now.
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