By Munir Majid
President Trump was elected on the promise of MAGA (Make America Great Again) and America First. They may be slogans but there are policies in their cause which are now being executed (implemented is too mild a term) by the administration. Domestically there is already blood on the floor, as departments, agencies and people are taken out, ostensibly in the name of efficiency, but including a huge dose of vengeance, getting even and removing elements of “Woke”.
In the world outside, no blood yet, but it may come. However, there has been blood and death, plenty, which the Trump administration is nonchalantly trampling on. In Gaza, what may be stored for the future is not his immediate concern. The war in Ukraine is in “whatever was it for” moment, after vicious conflict with Russia since February 2022 and hundreds of thousands of lives lost. The Europeans are stunned as Trump is set to make peace with Putin over everyone else’s heads, leaving them to deal with a Russia they had demonised. The future is fraught with hazard, with NATO likely to be diminished by reduced American commitment.
At the centre of Trump’s foreign policy, if any coherence can be constructed, lie tariffs. Intended to win back for America manufacturing jobs it had lost and to get even with nasty foreigners who close their markets but invade America’s, they may turn out to be a poisoned chalice, even as the US cavalry charges in full throttle. In April, a whole global network of tariff reciprocity, by American count, will be constructed.
Trump sees all this as correction and consequence. He is against the “Deep State”, and so he has to drain the Washington Swamp, of the “Minority”, who lorded it over the “Majority” he now represents. As for the foreigners, friend and foe alike, they are deemed to have been taking America for a ride – protecting their markets but penetrating America’s. It has to be admitted, he has the mandate.
Elected on MAGA and America First, Trump had been transparent with the series of policies he had planned to unleash on becoming President. He is doing so now. The huge majority of Americans who voted for him are with him. It is those Americans who did not, and the rest of the world which had no say on the matter, that cannot bear the shock of the alacrity with which he has embarked on what was promised.
Clearing the swamp in Washington was a metaphor, now a brutal reality. Whether it is invasion of federal departments and agencies, led by Elon Musk, to cut costs, or to cut down non-loyalists deemed to be anti-Trump, or the anti-immigrant Executive Orders signed by the President before the assembly of the people without even having gone to the White House after his inauguration, the delivery of populist objectives is as if there has been a revolution in America – not the election of a new president.
There will be more to come. Court orders stand in the way of some of the actions of the new administration. There is going to be a clash of political will and order in America. The courts and federal judges, seen by what is now a marked minority in the US as the last bastion of the American system of governance and democracy, are going to be the next target. Already there are judges identified as political agents and corrupt. With Congress, the legislative arm of government, on the side of Trump’s executive, there only remains the judiciary to be stormed. Not just the judiciary, the American Constitution is at risk.
Trump has begun talking about a third term, which the Constitution forbids. He pronounces like Napoleon before he became Emperor of France: What is good for the State is not illegal. For as long as he lives, the Trumpian revolution will be sweeping America, with whatever let or hindrance being unceremoniously removed.
The method in all this upheaval is that it is what the American people want. The unending and unfinished conflict in American society has, at this point, been won by the part of America which had been under-estimated. The other part of America, which the rest of the world mostly knows, no longer runs the US that the world has to deal with.
“America First” is not totally new to the world. “America Only” is. As is an America with gloves off, iron fist showing, with no veneer of law or morality. As is an America that does not much distinguish between friend and foe.
The Trump administration announced on 1st February tariffs of 25 percent on imports from Canada and Mexico, subsequently suspended for a month, despite the fact there is a Free Trade Agreement with them, signed by president Trump himself during his first term, and due for review in 2034. What is the point of an agreement with America when it can violate it with impunity, even with its closest neighbours, with one of whom the US has deep security relations, described as a security community in international relations literature? America First, first casualty, no agreement counts, as it suits the US.
Then on 13 February, Europe (over whom the tariff Sword of Damocles hangs) and Ukraine had their “what was it all for” moment when, after a telephone call with Russian president Putin, Trump said there will be peace between Russia and Ukraine. His defence secretary said it was unlikely Ukraine will get back territory occupied by Russia and inconceivable that Ukraine would join NATO. Whatever the arguments for and against the conflict, even if Europe overcooked the Russian threat, his settlement by fiat, over the heads of Europe and Ukraine, hands Russia a profound victory which alters the European balance of power, leaving NATO rather exposed by uncertain American support. While the details of any peace agreement remain to be finalised, the outlines of which way Trump the peacemaker wants to take this are pretty clear.
Before that phone call on Ukraine with President Putin, Trump had, with Israeli prime minister Netanyahu at his side, come out with a massive developer idea for Gaza. He is now trying to force this “Gaza as the Riveria of the Middle East” idea down Palestinian and Arab throats. It is more than likely that anything built on the foundation on tens of thousands of Palestinian dead will crumble sooner or later. Yet Trump the developer and property agent Netanyahu are eager to enjoy the benefits of a lease long enough for them to take profit, while the going’s good, and their power in the region unassailable. Law, morality, peace and justice are sacrificed on the altar of raw power.
Arab states like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are particularly in a predicament. They will succumb, perforce or by choice, to short-term advantages. The Palestinian issue will not be resolved. Peace in the Middle East will be as elusive as ever, even if Iran is taken out of the equation. Terror will be a constant threat, not only in the region but all over the world.
When it comes to China, Trump is not so stupid as to spit in Beijing’s face. He is mainly using tariffs to bring American power to bear. However, from the time he first introduced them in 2018, they have not been successful in gaining advantage for the US, or in cowing China.
Trump also announced a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods together with the 25 percent on Canadian and Mexican goods. This is in addition to the around 20 percent already in place against China. Beijing responded with precise and targeted countermeasures against US natural resource exports, agricultural machinery, and American companies, including Google. China also introduced export controls on rare earth elements such as tungsten and tellurium. All of this is intended to hurt the US.
The Trump tariff objectives against China in 2018 did not work. The present round is not expected to do any better. In 2024, China’s trade surplus with the US increased by 13 percent against 2018, and overall US-China trade by 8 percent, although the share of US-China trade in China’s total trade dropped to 11percent from 14 percent in 2018 – indicating decreased importance of the US market to China.
While Trump wants to bring manufacturing back to the US, he forgets America is no longer competitive in the manufacturing sector, a situation likely to be worsened by a shortage of workers resulting from the expulsion of immigrants. The US today accounts for only 15.9 percent of global manufacturing output – against China’s 31.6 percent for instance. A quarter of American exports are natural resources which will suffer from retaliation in a tariff war. All tariffs will do ultimately is raise prices for American consumers, and hurt specific constituencies bearing the cost of targeted response, in natural resources and the agricultural sector, as China has shown and major economies such as the EU will surely also.
That said, there are many countries in between, such as Vietnam which has a large surplus with America, or Malaysia whose stand on Gaza Trump does not much care for, that can be harmed by US tariffs, with no significant capacity to retaliate against insignificant American imports. Even India has had to take placatory steps, by committing to big purchases of American aircraft.
Nevertheless, if Trump assessed the global strategic balance clearly, he might see the danger of overreach and of structural estrangement from America. It is up to Trump and his domestic constituency how he wants to run the US and to treat any opposition, whether he shows respect for the law or if he wishes to force any institution or individual into submission. In the world outside, however, he cannot have everything his own way.
There are formidable countries like China around whom many states position themselves. Even Trump’s secretary of state Marco Rubio recognises America’s unipolar moment from the end of the Cold War is long over. There is already a change in the balance of power in the world that has been taking place. A “Trump does as Trump will” approach spilling from the domestic to the international arena will harm US interests and hasten the decline of American influence in the world. Trump going gaga with MAGA could result in global bifurcation as states take cover and gravitate towards China as an alternative centre of world order.
– Dr Munir Majid is the Visiting Senior Fellow at LSE IDEAS (Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and strategy), a member of the Round Table International Advisory Board and President of the Asean Business Club.
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