In recent months, several international and regional media outlets have reported the incoming Trump administration’s impending recognition of Somaliland. Somaliland is a country in the Horn of Africa that operates as a de facto sovereign state, but remains unrecognized internationally. Positioned in the strategic Gulf of Aden, it plays a key role in regional trade and security while maintaining both stability and democratic governance. Accordingly, regional analysts and scholars have examined what this could mean for the Horn of Africa region, Middle Eastern powers—and perhaps most importantly of all, for US-China relations.
Against the backdrop of major competition between the United States and China, as well as the unpredictability of the new Trump administration, some experts are calling on Washington to reconsider its relations with Africa. Although the United States seeks to advance its strategic interests, a future strategy that relates to African states should consider and engage with the legitimate political and economic aspirations of African people. Somaliland is no exception.
Somaliland held a democratic presidential election in November 2024 that resulted in the defeat of the incumbent president, and the election of the country’s sixth leader since reclaiming sovereignty from Somalia in 1991. Having successfully concluded a peaceful transfer of power, the timing couldn’t be better for Somaliland. Calls to recognize Somaliland are increasingly gaining in Washington. Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Irro, has promised to further boost ties with Taiwan and the United States, while also expanding Somaliland’s diplomatic engagement.
Meanwhile, the US government has expressed a keen interest in Somaliland’s strategic location and supports Irro’s administration. The US ambassador to Somalia Richard Riley, at the inauguration of president Irro, reassured attendees that the United States would closely work with the new administration, adding that “you have many friends in the international community.’’ However, in supporting this new administration, US engagement should also focus on promoting Somaliland-Taiwan relations.
Evaluating current ties
China will no doubt be a priority for the Trump administration. This may be seen by the nomination of “China hawks” to several key positions in the State Department, the National Security Council, and the Department of Defense. A recent op-ed by Mitch McConnell, a senator from Kentucky and the former Republican senate leader, highlights that the second Trump Administration should consider meeting Chinese competition in a more globalist way: by emphasizing the role of allies, and expanding and maintaining partnerships to pre-position US forces and the capacity for power projection—including securing bases, access, and over-flight rights for these purposes.
In July 2020, Taiwan and Somaliland forged official relations, based on “common values and interests.” For Somaliland, this meant headway toward the country’s decades-old quest for recognition and an opportunity to attract economic and foreign investments. The move has prompted China and Somalia, who have respectively claimed sovereignty over those countries, to condemn these diplomatic relations as a violation of “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” However, the White House’s National Security Council, and US government officials, diplomats, and lawmakers have supported these relations ever since.
Bashir Goth, Somaliland’s Representative to the United States, has even stated that Somaliland’s relations with Taiwan have improved Somaliland’s standing in Washington. In 2019, the United States Congress and Senate adopted the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act. The Act, which calls upon the US government to protect Taiwan from any coercion from China, encourages support for Taiwan in strengthening its official diplomatic relationships worldwide. According to Goth, Somaliland officials in Washington and Hargeisa have followed that development with great interest and were inspired by the TAIPEI Act
Although the Biden administration’s willingness to engage with Somaliland was limited through the framework of a “One Somalia” policy, conservative lawmakers in the Congress and the Senate have pushed for deepened engagement with Somaliland based on three major factors: its strategic positioning in the region, its democratic credentials, and its relationship with Taiwan. Republicans’ criticism has been that the Democrats have wasted billions in Somalia to no avail, and that Trump’s withdrawal of US troops from Somalia reflects that sentiment.
A defining feature of former Somaliland president Bihi’s foreign policy was the renewed emphasis placed on Somaliland’s strategic position. This was evident during his visit to Washington in 2022, where he met with Senate and House members—and which resulted in members of Congress introducing several bills calling for the Biden Administration to strengthen diplomatic and security relations with Somaliland. The importance of this relationship has not gone unnoticed by Somaliland officials, nor by Taiwanese diplomats in Somaliland. ‘’Taiwan is the most effective and strongest factor Somaliland has to leverage for better relations with the US,’’ said the Taiwanese Representative to Somaliland. In response, China’s opposition grew stronger, and Chinese officials condemned as a mistake Somaliland’s decision to deal with Taiwan.
What should the second Trump administration do?
American diplomats and analysts have argued that Washington should place greater weight on its support for Taiwan and Hargeisa in the Horn of Africa. Both states have continued to hold on to their democratic principles, and have maintained a stable political environment.
“Democracy is our common language, and freedom is our common goal,” said Allen Lou (羅震華), the Taiwan Representative to Somaliland. Further assistance to Somaliland’s democratic institutions, particularly civil society organizations, should be a key element in US support to Somaliland and Taiwan. Lou further added that democracy and freedom constitute the fundamental and common values that connect Taiwan and Somaliland to the international community.
One good start could be establishing an American diplomatic representative office or Institute in Somaliland in Hargeisa, similar to the one it maintains in Taipei. Not only could the United States channel its support and engagement to Somaliland through such an office, but it would also help the United States coordinate better with Somaliland and Taiwan officials in Hargeisa. Furthermore, the United States should encourage Taiwan to provide technical and political support for drilling oil and mineral resources in Somaliland.
In 2021, British-owned Genel Energy partnered with Taiwanese companies to start drilling in Somaliland, but this partnership was subsequently delayed. In testimony to the US Senate Scott Nathan, CEO of the United States International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), hinted at a willingness to partner with Taiwan in Somaliland to invest in the oil sector. That’s a good start that the Trump Administration can build on—especially since the DFC and Taiwan International Cooperation and Development Fund (TaiwanICDF, 財團法人國際合作發展基金會) have partnered to enhance private sector investment globally.
Support for economic diversification is another area in which the Trump administration can support Somaliland and Taiwan. The United States can assist Somaliland in promoting investment in technology, manufacturing, and services. This will build upon the work that Somaliland and Taiwan have been doing regarding technological cooperation. Recently, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States have been in talks on how to promote technological cooperation—especially in the field of AI, which the UAE has been keen to develop by partnering with Taiwanese semiconductor chip companies. Although Somaliland lags in this field compared to the UAE, a joint venture with Taiwan could significantly boost Somaliland’s technological advancement.
Utilizing Somaliland’s strategic positioning, not only for security purposes but also for economic development, is crucial. Previously, Somaliland’s Berbera Port received a USD $440 million investment from the Emirates-owned company DP World, elevating it to one of the top-performing ports in East Africa. The upgraded Berbera port facility offers a good opportunity for trilateral engagement between the United States, Somaliland, and Taiwan. Business interests from Taiwan are eager to explore how Berbera can serve as their gateway to the continent. Furthermore, if Taiwan successfully realizes that goal, it could encourage other economic powers—such as India, which has recently maintained good relations with Taiwan—to seek an economic presence in the region.
The Trump administration’s foreign policy will not be an easy ride. The unpredictability of Washington’s next moves could also stand in the way of further expanding this trilateral relationship. During his campaign, Trump called for Taiwan to pay the United States more for its protection, and accused Taiwan of dominating the semiconductor industry at the expense of the United States. Moreover, increased tensions in the South China Sea, coupled with Ukraine and ongoing crises in the Middle East, might keep Africa off the list of President Trump’s priorities. This is where both Taiwan and Somaliland should lobby the United States to support Taiwan-Somaliland relations.
Somaliland also has to live up to its own commitments. Poor institutions, misplaced policy priorities, and the lack of a comprehensive legal framework have slowed down meaningful engagement with Taiwan. To take advantage of future opportunities, the government in Hargeisa needs to come up with necessary initiatives and policy reforms that can further build upon engagement between Taiwan and Somaliland.
The main point: With Washington’s growing acknowledgment of the strategic importance of both Somaliland and Taiwan, the United States should support enhanced ties between Somaliland and Taiwan—which would benefit both countries’ international engagement, economic development, and diversification.
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