By Sir Ronald Sanders
Two Executive Orders issued by US President Donald Trump have sparked concern across the Caribbean, much as they have in Central America and beyond. One mandates the removal of illegal migrants from the US, while the other shutters the US Agency for International Development (USAID), an institution that has long been a symbol of American foreign assistance.
The alarm within the 14 independent Caribbean Community (CARICOM) nations arises from the belief that they will suddenly face an influx of deported nationals from the US, many perceived as hardened criminals. This prospect raises concerns among governments and citizens alike about their capacity to absorb these returnees. However, as this commentary will later illustrate, this problem may be more imagined than real.
Another source of anxiety stems from the recent actions of the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, which has closed down USAID—an agency established in 1961 by president John F. Kennedy to provide aid and development assistance to foreign nations. In reality, apart from Jamaica, USAID’s role in CARICOM has not been significant for many years, as will be detailed later in this commentary.
Dealing first with the removal or deportation of non-detained CARICOM nationals in the US. These CARICOM nationals are not hardened criminals. If they were, they would be detained, not “non detained”. All of them would be classified as having broken US law and, in that sense, to have committed crimes. Among these crimes would be remaining in the US beyond the time that their visas allowed, or for offences committed while they were in the US illegally. Among these offences would be possession of prohibited drugs or being arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol.
The deportation of such individuals is not a recent development; it has been an ongoing practice since the Obama administration. Governments have been compelled to accept their deported nationals or face the prospect of tighter visa issuance restrictions for all their citizens, including businesspersons and government officials. This policy did not commence with president Trump’s tenure; it has been in place for over a decade.
The US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) faces a significant challenge: while they possess lists of individuals residing illegally in the US, compiled from immigration records and law enforcement encounters, they often lack precise information on these individuals’ whereabouts. Moreover, even if apprehended, ICE does not have sufficient facilities to detain all of them. This logistical reality means that mass deportations are not feasible, and any removal process will be gradual.
Among the nearly 1.5 million individuals identified for deportation, CARICOM nationals account for 42,289 cases, with Haiti comprising 32,363 and Jamaica 5,120. The remaining 4,856 are distributed among the other 12 CARICOM countries. Importantly, these individuals cannot be deported all at once; each must be located, apprehended, brought before a court, and detained until repatriation.
Moreover, ICE’s priorities lie elsewhere. Countries like Honduras (261,651 non-detained individuals), Guatemala (253,413), Mexico (252,044), and El Salvador (203,822) have far higher numbers of undocumented nationals in the US. Since president Trump’s second-term inauguration on January 20, mass deportations have targeted these nations: Mexico (4,094), Colombia (306), Guatemala (265), and Ecuador (80). Notably, these 4,856 individuals were already in detention awaiting removal.
CARICOM countries have the opportunity to proactively plan for the return of their nationals. Governments should initiate these plans now to prevent strain on social welfare systems and rising unemployment. Additionally, while recognizing the US administration’s right to deport illegal immigrants—an action they themselves undertake—CARICOM nations must insist that this process is conducted lawfully, with respect for human dignity and without discrimination.
Regarding the closure of USAID and its impact on CARICOM countries: In the 2023 fiscal year, USAID disbursed approximately $44 billion across 160 countries and regions worldwide. Ukraine was the top recipient, receiving over $16 billion. Israel received more than $2.2 billion, while Ethiopia and Jordan each received over $1 billion. Other major beneficiaries included Somalia, Afghanistan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In contrast, CARICOM countries were not significant recipients of USAID funds.
In 2023, US assistance to CARICOM countries, including contributions from USAID, totalled approximately $456.2 million – representing just about 1 percent of USAID’s total disbursements that year and less than 0.1 percent of the total aid programme of the US government. Haiti was the primary beneficiary, receiving $393.8 million. Jamaica followed with $26 million, and Belize with $19.8 million. Beyond these, US assistance contributions sharply declined: Dominica received $86,000; Suriname, $371,000; St Vincent and the Grenadines, $474,000; and Antigua and Barbuda, $558,000. Notably, the aid to Antigua and Barbuda was specifically allocated for combating drug trafficking, primarily targeting narcotics destined for the US market.
Therefore, while USAID’s assistance has been valuable, it was not invaluable; nor was it evenly distributed—some countries benefited more than others. Caribbean leaders in government, the private sector, and the labour movement should now adjust their strategies to address the closure of the USAID agency, and any meaningful assistance it may have provided.
The shuttering of USAID as an agency does not mean aid from the US will end. However, with the resources and functioning of USAID being transferred to the US State Department, the disbursement of aid will become more political than in the past.
But it should be noted that in 2023, the US benefited from a trade surplus of $7.45 billion with CARICOM countries. This indicates that CARICOM nations effectively financed the $456.2 million they received in US aid through their substantial purchases of US goods, accounting for over 60 percent of their imports.
The trade and aid figures underscore that CARICOM counties have room for negotiating a continuing mutually beneficial relationship between the US and CARICOM countries, provided they act together.
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