By Faris Hadad-Zervos and Dina Umali-Deininger
Afghanistan is facing a severe food security crisis, with millions struggling to access adequate food. An estimated 11.6 million Afghans – 25 percent of the population – are experiencing food insecurity.
Climate shocks are exacerbating this crisis. The ongoing drought – among the worst in decades – has drastically reduced rainfall, severely impacting rain-dependent agriculture. Earlier this year, catastrophic flooding in provinces like Baghlan, Takhar, and Badakhshan, caused widespread destruction of homes, agricultural lands, and livestock.
Afghanistan ranks fourth on the list of countries most at risk of climate-related crisis and is considered the seventh most vulnerable country with the least coping capacity. The frequency of droughts in the country has increased from an average of once every 3 years over 1986–2012, to once every other year over 2013–2023.
These intensifying droughts and floods damage crops, disrupt supply chains, and increase food prices. Such climatic shocks—coupled with economic instability and conflict—worsen food insecurity.
Impact on agricultural economy
A new World Bank study examined the effects of climate and weather shocks on Afghanistan’s agricultural economy, with an emphasis on food security, prices, and wages. The findings reveal that both flooding and drought significantly increase food insecurity, directly and indirectly.
Floods cause immediate crop and infrastructure damage, while droughts exacerbate water scarcity and lower crop yields, driving up food prices and lowering agricultural wages. Economic factors, such as inflation, rising fuel costs, and currency depreciation, further reduce the purchasing power of consumers and strain affordability. These combined challenges leave vulnerable households particularly at risk.
Investing in long-term resilience
Addressing food insecurity requires a comprehensive approach. Investments in climate resilience, like drought-resistant crops and livestock, crop diversification, improved irrigation and integrated watershed management, are essential. Simultaneously, economic measures such as income support for vulnerable populations and improved market access can help mitigate the effects of rising costs.
Moving beyond emergency aid, Afghanistan must invest in long-term resilience. While emergency aid is necessary to address urgent needs, sustainable solutions are essential for lasting food security. This includes enhancing local agricultural production, promoting sustainable farming practices, enhancing agricultural value chains, and developing early warning systems for climatic events.
The World Bank is helping address the food security crisis through the Afghanistan Emergency Food Security Project (EFSP) which supports the Afghan population by boosting food crop production among smallholder farmers and addressing the nutritional needs of women-headed households, in partnership with the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). It is also promoting resilience and commercialization of agriculture production systems through the private sector by scaling up climate-resilient seed value chains, investing in improved water management technologies, and promoting value addition facilities to connect food supply chains to markets.
The project has benefited more than 5 million people, employed more than 170,000 women farmers, increased production of wheat by 26 percent, and provided improved irrigation and drainage services on 523,000 hectares of land.
The Water Emergency Relief Project (WERP) is supporting a pilot to improve surface water irrigation systems to reduce the impact of droughts and thus foster greater agricultural climate resilience in partnership with the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) and the Agha Khan Foundation (AKF). By replacing diesel pumps with sustainable energy solutions, the project enhances farmers’ access to water and energy resources. It is also fostering community-private partnerships to deliver longer term solutions for drought-affected rural communities. The project will benefit 2,000 farmers and 100,000 community members.
The World Bank is also partnering with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to strengthen the delivery of hydrometeorology and early warning services to Afghan people. A drought forecasting and early warning tool is being developed, leveraging satellite remote sensing datasets and machine learning prediction models, to strengthen drought risk management and anticipatory actions. This open-source tool can help farmers to prepare in advance by adjusting their crop management practices, such as altering irrigation schedules, selecting drought-resistant crop varieties, or delaying planting to avoid the most vulnerable periods.
The challenges posed by climate change and its cascading impacts on food security in Afghanistan will continue to increase over time. By focusing on resilience and sustainable food system solutions, Afghanistan can build a more robust and adaptive food system that ensures food security and safeguards the livelihoods of the millions of Afghan people.
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